Inflation as an Impact of the Problem Economic
An economists’ forecast that inflation will be 4% next week and will most likely be wrong. No, not the scientists who do a good job and a bad economist. The problem is the nature of the data that each work. The data that we use in economics, always, by definition, wrong. “Wrong? Maybe I’m too far away, I mean, old, past, or simply does not reflect the current reality. They reflect the reality of the past.
Economists will be asked to provide a vision or figure what would, for example, the economic dynamics in the next quarter. Very difficult task if one takes into account all the information and the best in the world delayed and did not reflect this. To simplify this argument, think about your business. Can you, today, to say what level of sales this quarter.
Difficult task, especially if we assume that your company’s sales and themes inherent in the product, branding, advertising, etc., will be affected by inflation, overall economic growth, investment, type of contrast, etc. But if you can not say how much they will sell economists, how economists to provide a projection that are more or less realistic than what would occur in the environment.
The same thing with data inflation, exchange rates, GDP, etc. Economic agents (households, consumers, government, investors), always bet against. If we say that there will be inflation in one month, people buy more in the morning to avoid high prices, and triggering inflation. If we confess our economic crisis, people stop investing and the economy fell on the budget. And so forth.
How do we also get rid of this mess? With knowledge of economic theory, economic models that attempt to calculate the thousands of variables, with better statistical tools. While we are blinded relating to the future, for information on getting delayed, we do know is what has happened before and what the consequences. Thus, the economy could be detected as “initial” small changes in the historical figures to try to anticipate where to go.
Some people believe that much of the analysis is based on “economic smell ‘expert, perhaps it is true, that as a businessman who either did not anticipate the market, an economist who either did not anticipate the indicator, which is to interpret them better.
Either way, you will agree that the starting point of all this, is to have good data. Credible data. Voice data. Data is free from political manipulation. Whether the data will be reflecting the past. Yes, but while better than, the more we move into the future.
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Posted in Advertising, Economy, Inflation | 
Tags: advertising, branding, Company's Sales, Economic Dynamics, product
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