Technical Analysis is the Development of the Euro-Dollar?
To understand the technical scenario, accompanied by a weekly chart of the Euro since the beginning, back in 1999. Assuming that the graphics, as a faithful reflection of the reality of prices, never cheat, at a glance we can see the historical situation of crossing EUR / USD and more or less clearly foresee the MTO.
Since its launch in 1999 (earlier data form the synthetic historical change provided by the DEM / USD) in the environment of 1.14, the Euro did not stop losing value against the dollar, bottoming out in October 2000 to change a slightly above 0.82. At that time, 28% lost value against the initial change of release. But it was all about to change.
Since the minimum in the 0.82, the single currency began to climb unstoppable while vertical, between 2002 and 2003 (when parity was broken again in favor of the Euro). In the chart, and we draw the main bullish channel (formed between June 2001 and February 2002) and up to two lines of extension of the channel. So that we understand, a line of projection of the channel (3 lines) is still considered a normal range, reaching a fourth line is considered an extreme movement and passing it is a clear movement of aberration, which, as a rule, brings a movement equally extreme reaction to very strong.
Technically, the time of onset of ‘hostilities’ beginning in 2004, when it first comes out of the range Euro 4 lines, an act he would repeat in 2005, leading in turn moves the volatile reaction torque increased dramatically, and placed as the most actively traded. But all was not even that. The extreme aberration lelgaría period between 2007 and 2008, where the Euro was all rationality is only one way up, touching 1.60 in the summer of 2008, and making believe, on who you would like to believe-that had been to stay and become the new currency. What remained to be seen was the movement of anti-irrational reaction, which even today we are immersed.
As we see, after the fall of 2008, we returned to rebound, and in 2009 to go beyond the limits again and touching 1.51, at which time the weight of gravity to take effect again and again as the pair within the bullish channel original, something not achieved with the 2008 crash (and not seen since 2002!), which indicates that the Euro has lost all the gas I had, and that, at most, could rebound to the third line of this range, about 1.36-1.38, but has a quite deliberate target, and that is the original bull attack line, which today are in the 1.20, and that would be a surprise not to see this year or early next, after the rebound discussed above. That’s the scenario in the medium-long term, in which I think should work, and that is likely to come true.
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Tags: Development, Environment, Financial Instrument, Movement, Rationality, Target, Technically
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